When it comes to influencer marketing and the budgets that businesses and brands spend (US) on the digital marketing campaigns, TikTok is set to overtake Facebook by the end of 2022, and projected to continue to climb the mountain, according to TechCrunch.

It’s clear that Instagram is worried about their hold on the top spot, as TikTok continues to climb the ranks, and given the amount of updates Instagram has implemented to make it’s app feel more like TikTok (more on that), the brands are digging in their heels to collide for supremacy atop the influencer marketing mountain.

The report cites a new data study from analysts at Insider Intelligence (previously eMarketer) that indicates that TikTok is set to overtake Facebook in influencer marketing spend within 2022, and will take over YouTube, who currently sits in the second spot, by the year 2024.

Currently within the United States, YouTube is seeing $948.0 million in influencer marketing dollars spent on its platform which is ahead of Facebook’s $739.0 million, but TikTok has already topped YouTube based on marketer usage for influencer centric marketing campaigns.

Also noted were Instagram’s recent rolling back of some recent updates to replicate TikTok, but some kickback, which included a complaint from celebrities like the Kardashians, forced a change in approach.

Instagram could be planning for larger scale changes in the future, so it can slide more fluidly into an influencer marketing centric focus. Whether or not TikTok SEO will force Instagram to embrace search engine optimization style marketing remains to be seen, but change is coming.

Smaller influencers are set to see some growth in opportunities as well, as Instagram’s feed adjustments would allow smaller “micro” and “nano” influencers to get a bigger cut of the revenue cake. To clarify, Nano-influencers are considered to be those with 1,000-4,999 followers, with micro-influencers clocking between 5,000-19,999 followers, and with TikTok content creators who would fit in those categories already generating benefits, it’s vital for Instagram to also point focus in those directions.

The report predicts that “nano” influencer spending will rise 220.5%, and spending on “mega” influencers will grow only 8.0%.

There is also data to show that marketers may prefer to work with smaller creators, for a number of reasons that include cheaper rates and higher engagement rate potential.

“TikTok is surging in popularity for influencer marketing, but it’s still nowhere near Instagram in terms of spending or marketer adoption,” Insider Intelligence principal analyst Jasmine Enberg said. “That’s in part due to the higher prices Instagram creators charge for content, but also because of its wide array of content formats, most of which are now shoppable. Still, Instagram is trying to be more like TikTok so that it can attract smaller creators, which TikTok is known for. That’s key for Instagram to retain its lead in the influencer marketing space, especially as many creators on TikTok now boast follower counts that rival or surpass those on Instagram and YouTube.”

The report closes by predicting that 74.5% of U.S. marketers will use influencer marketing in 2022 and influencer marketing spend will rise by 27.8% to $4.99 billion this year alone.